Early Warning and Early Warning Systems
Print this page- Early warning system: Terminology
- Four elements of Early Warning Systems
- Why it's important
- Early Warning and disaster preparedness
- Early Warning Dissemination
- Equipment and infrastructure
- Public education and awareness-raising
Early warning system: Terminology
The provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response. Early warning systems include a chain of concerns, namely: understanding and mapping the hazard, monitoring and forecasting impending events, processing and disseminating understandable warnings to political authorities and the population, and undertaking appropriate and timely actions in response to the warnings. (Source: UN/ISDR Terminology)
Early warning systems empower individuals and communities threatened by hazards to act in sufficient time and in an appropriate manner so as to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment, and loss of livelihoods. The expression "people centred early warning systems" is used to emphasize that warning systems must recognize human needs and human behaviour, and must be developed with local participation from both women and men.
Assessing capacity to provide the four elements of early warning is the first step to identifying areas of weakness and necessary measures to fill gaps. Strategies to develop or strengthen early warning systems should ensure that all of the elements are effective: weakness in one early warning element can result in failure of the entire system.
Four elements of Early Warning Systems
Early warning is more than just a prediction Ea complete early warning system comprises of four elements:
- Risk knowledge, systematically collect data and undertake risk assessments
- Monitoring and warning service, develop hazard monitoring and early warning services
- Dissemination and communication, communicate risk information and early warnings
- Response capability, build national and community response capabilities
Why it's important
Early warning and preparedness plays a critical role in preventing hazardous events turning into disasters. Clear warnings, received in time, coupled with the knowledge of how to react, can mean the difference between life and death, or between economic survival and ruin, for individuals and communities.
Early warning and preparedness systems are widely acknowledged as good investments to protect life and property. But many countries and communities still do not have effective systems and are highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This was sadly demonstrated once again in the Indian Ocean Tsunami in December 2004 which killed more than 200.000 people.
Early Warning and disaster preparedness
Early warning refers to the systematic collection and analysis of information for the purpose of anticipating and identifying emerging, deteriorating, or reoccurring humanitarian crises. Early warning allows the public and emergency responders to take pre-emptive and protective action to avoid harm. Early warning should trigger action by designated agencies or community members to prepare for a hazard event and/or assist the evacuation in an area at risk.
At a minimum, as part of the national preparedness capability, disaster authorities should be linked to the meteorological and seismic monitoring departments both nationally and regionally, and to key government or academic institutions that consistently track disaster trends. Depending on the hazard type, community-based monitoring mechanisms may be able to monitor changes at the local level.
The challenge for the agency responsible for disaster management is to generate effective analysis and application of multiple information sources, particularly in cases where information can at times be contradictory. As soon as a potential hazard event is detected, organisations with responsibilities within the disaster preparedness system should be notified, and stand-by capacities mobilised for action.
National institutional arrangements for preparedness should clearly designate who can authorize the release of warnings to the public, what organisations should be notified, and the procedures to be followed. Standard warning formats and elements should be prepared in advance, and appropriate means or systems for issuing the warning should be determined, based on the nature of the imminent hazard event. These systems should be consistent for all hazards.
Early Warning Dissemination
It is imperative that preparedness and warning systems are designed to reach the entire population, including seasonal populations and remote locations. These communication systems should be two-way and interactive to allow for verification that warnings have been received, and to be able to monitor the impact of an event. Warning alerts and messages should be geographically specific so that warnings are targeted to those at risk only.
It is also advisable to ensure that multiple communication mediums are used for warning dissemination (e.g. mass media and informal communication). Warnings generated should be distributed to those at risk by credible sources (e.g. government, spiritual leaders, respected community organisations). Volunteer networks can also be trained and empowered to receive and widely disseminate hazard warnings to remote households and communities. Relying solely on technology, such as mobile telephone communications, which are vulnerable during hazard events, should be avoided.
Dissemination systems should be tailored to the needs of individual communities (e.g. radio or television for those with access; and sirens, warning flags or messenger runners for remote communities). Warning alerts and messages should also be tailored to the specific needs of those at particularly high risk (e.g. for diverse cultural, social, gender, linguistic and educational backgrounds). Messages should incorporate the understanding of the values, concerns and interests of those who will need to take action (e.g. instructions for safeguarding livestock and pets).
It is also important to try to minimise the number of false alarms to maintain trust in the warning system.
Equipment and infrastructure
The organisation in charge of warning should also be constantly linked to a fully equipped and coordinated monitoring network that can provide on-going data analysis during a hazard event.
These warning centres need to be operational and staffed at all times with trained personnel.
Appropriate resources should also be in place to maintain this equipment and to provide back-up systems in the event of a failure. In establishing these systems, international organisations or experts can provide assistance in the identification and procurement of appropriate equipment and in ensuring its compatibility with regional or international systems. In some cases, it may also be appropriate to negotiate agreements to utilise private sector resources where appropriate in advance (e.g. amateur radios, safety shelters).
In order to be effective, early warning systems must also be tested to make sure that messages are well understood and that systems function effectively.
Public education and awareness-raising
Public education and awareness-raising prior to any hazard event is also essential. Ideally, on-going public awareness and education activities on disaster preparedness should be built in to school curricula from primary schools to university. Public education and awareness raising activities should provide clear information on hazards, vulnerabilities, risks, and how to reduce disaster impacts to vulnerable communities and decision-makers. They should also provide community education on how warnings will be disseminated and on how to respond to different types of hazards after an early warning message is received.
Utilising mass media and folk or alternative media to improve public awareness can also be effective in this regard. In addition, public awareness and education campaigns should be tailored to the specific needs of each target group (e.g. children, emergency managers, media). Public awareness strategies and programmes should be reviewed at least once per year (so that they can be updated as required).
Words into Action
More information on hazard monitoring and early warning is included in: Words into Action; Hyogo Priority Two; identifying, assessing and monitoring disaster risks and enhance early warning.
Useful Resources and Tools
Disaster Preparedness for Effective Response Guidance and indicator Package for Implementing Priority Five of the HFA, OCHA 2008. The document contains a list of indicators to support the action of strengthening of Early Warning Systems by Governments, Civil Society and Regional Organisation.
Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist, UN/ISDR. 2006. Developed as an outcome of the Third International Conference on Early Warning (EWC III), 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. The checklist is an outcome document of the EWC III. It was created in order to help governments and communities implement people-centred early warning systems. The checklist was translated into 19 Indian Ocean country languages.
Global Survey of Early Warning Systems: An assessment of capacities, gaps and opportunities toward building a comprehensive global early warning system for all natural hazards, UN/ISDR, United Nations publication, 2006.
Early Warning - From concept to action, UN/ISDR, DKKV. 2006. The Conclusions of the Third International Conference on Early Warning Conference held 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany.
The International Center on Research El Niño (CIFEN). CIFEN promotes, complements and starts scientific and application research projects necessary to improve the comprehension and early warning of El Niño events.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). The Nairobi-based organization for the Horn of Africa countries of Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) for Early Warning of Wildland Fire. Global, regional and national fire weather and climate forecasts, as well as background materials.
Global Information and Early Warning Service (GIEWS). GIEWS, operated by the FAO, continuously reviews the world food supply/demand situation and issues reports on the world food situation.
HEWSweb. HEWSweb service has dedicated pages for each type of hazard including drought, floods, storms, locusts, volcanoes, earthquakes, weather, El Niņo and other hazards and socio-political developments.
Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning. The Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning, advocates for better early warning systems, especially in development assistance policy and programs. It collects and disseminates information on best practices, and stimulates cooperation among early warning actors and the development of new ways to improve early warning systems.
Severe Weather Information Centre. This World Meteorological Organization (WMO) web site provides a single and centralized source for the media to access official warnings and information issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
Disaster Preparedness for Effective Response Guidance and indicator Package for Implementing Priority Five of the HFA, OCHA 2008. The document contains a list of indicators to support the action of strengthening of Early Warning Systems by Governments, Civil Society and Regional Organisation.
Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist, UN/ISDR. 2006. Developed as an outcome of the Third International Conference on Early Warning (EWC III), 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. The checklist is an outcome document of the EWC III. It was created in order to help governments and communities implement people-centred early warning systems. The checklist was translated into 19 Indian Ocean country languages.
Global Survey of Early Warning Systems: An assessment of capacities, gaps and opportunities toward building a comprehensive global early warning system for all natural hazards, UN/ISDR, United Nations publication, 2006.
Early Warning - From concept to action, UN/ISDR, DKKV. 2006. The Conclusions of the Third International Conference on Early Warning Conference held 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany.
The International Center on Research El Niño (CIFEN). CIFEN promotes, complements and starts scientific and application research projects necessary to improve the comprehension and early warning of El Niño events.
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). The Nairobi-based organization for the Horn of Africa countries of Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) for Early Warning of Wildland Fire. Global, regional and national fire weather and climate forecasts, as well as background materials.
Global Information and Early Warning Service (GIEWS). GIEWS, operated by the FAO, continuously reviews the world food supply/demand situation and issues reports on the world food situation.
HEWSweb. HEWSweb service has dedicated pages for each type of hazard including drought, floods, storms, locusts, volcanoes, earthquakes, weather, El Niņo and other hazards and socio-political developments.
Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning. The Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning, advocates for better early warning systems, especially in development assistance policy and programs. It collects and disseminates information on best practices, and stimulates cooperation among early warning actors and the development of new ways to improve early warning systems.
Severe Weather Information Centre. This World Meteorological Organization (WMO) web site provides a single and centralized source for the media to access official warnings and information issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.