Disaster Risk Analysis
Print this page- What is disaster risk?
- What are secondary risks?
- Why analyse disaster risk?
- Who should analyse disaster risk?
- Hazards
- Vulnerability
- Response capacity analysis
- Analysis Criteria
- Suggested Methodology - Using Selected Criteria to Determine High-Risk Low-Capacity Countries
- Risk seasonality
- Selected Risk Analysis Data Sources
- Selected Other Disaster Risk Analysis Tools
What is disaster risk?
A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.
A disaster is a function of the risk process. It results from the combination of hazards, conditions of vulnerability and insufficient capacity or measures to reduce the potential negative consequences of risk.
What are secondary risks?
Secondary risks are defined as acute, environmental impacts that threaten human life and health after the initial disaster. There are many examples, including landslides after earthquakes or floods, a chemical spill, explosions or fires when an industrial facility or infrastructure is damaged by a disaster. In some cases, secondary risks can result in a higher number of victims than the initial disaster. Due to the dangers they pose for a population and emergency responders, secondary risks require immediate identification and attention after a disaster.
The Joint UNEP/OCHA Environment Unit conducts an "Environment Risk Identification" after a disaster to assist field staff with the identification of secondary risks.
Why analyse disaster risk?
Unfortunately, resources for disaster response preparedness are not sufficient to cover all required preparedness activities, despite a growing number of donors recognising the importance and cost-effectiveness of preparedness work, and a growing number of preparedness initiatives and guidance mechanisms at global level. Effective disaster response preparedness programming can also take time to implement.
Thus focusing on high-risk low-capacity countries - countries where disaster risk is high but capacity to respond is low - is the best way to maximise the impact of our work.
Who should analyse disaster risk?
To be effective, the prioritization of countries for disaster response preparedness must - as far as possible - derive from inter-agency consensus. Why?
Complete information: good prioritization is based on a review of all available information on disaster risks, from all relevant humanitarian actors and sources.
Harmonisation of the understanding of disaster risk: the criteria used by different humanitarian actors for risk analysis may vary, depending on individual mandates and programming. Bringing these different views and criteria together will result in a more complete evaluation of all the current risks in the region.
Coordination of preparedness action: to maximise effectiveness, humanitarian actors should work together, and their preparedness programmes must be complementary. A consensus on high-risk low-capacity countries is the first step in ensuring that preparedness programming is properly coordinated.
Hazards
A hazard is a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity. Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats and can have different origins:
Natural: geological, hydro-meteorological and biological
Human induced: environmental degradation, technological hazards, violence, other contextual risks
Each hazard is characterised by its location, intensity, frequency and probability.
Hazards may also have secondary effects - a windstorm may cause flooding, which may in turn lead to a water-borne disease epidemic. An earthquake may also provoke a tsunami, or may create an environmental emergency if structural damage is caused to nuclear facilitites. An active volcano could erupt, but it could also lead to gas, lahars and ash showers. Such secondary effects should also be taken into account when analysing the hazard element of risk.
Vulnerability
Vulnerability reflects the characteristics of a person or a group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a hazard.
Vulnerability can be further complicated by man's actions. Areas of environmental degradation are increasingly susceptible to landslides and mudslides at times of heavy rainfall. Socio-economic factors, especially rapid urbanization and improper land use increase community vulnerability to flood disasters. Overcrowding increases the secondary risks of such disasters, including water-borne disease such as cholera and dysentery, and exacerbates the impact of water-borne vectors such as malaria and dengue fever. Vulnerability analysis must therefore also review social and economic factors, not just proximity or direct exposure to the hazard.
Vulnerability may also be exacerbated by conflict. Populations in conflict settings, IDPs and refugees may have lower coping capacities than those in more stable enviornments, and may be disproportionately affected by disasters. Thus conflict-related indicators, or potential conflict indicators, are also useful as a factor in disaster risk analysis.
Response capacity analysis
Response Capacity is the capacity to provide assistance or other intervention during or immediately after a disaster to meet the life preservation and basic subsistence needs of those people affected. It can be of an immediate, short-term or protracted duration, and may include physical, institutional, social and/or economic means as well as skilled personnel or attributes such as leadership and management.
Analysis Criteria
Disaster risk must be analysed by choosing the most appropriate region-specific criteria for assessing the probable future prevalence and magnitude of hazards; vulnerability levels; and existing response capacity. The analysis should take into account past and current information to inform the decision about future risks in each area.
Suggested Methodology - Using Selected Criteria to Determine High-Risk Low-Capacity Countries
Risk analysis can be conducted according to the following methodology:
Each component of the risk analysis can be weighted based on its relevant importance - as decided by inter-agency consensus - in the region.
Risk seasonality
Disaster risk hazards are often seasonal - and this is also important to reflect in risk analysis. A stronger understanding of the seasonality of disaster risk will assist in prioritisting disaster response preparedness work over the year.
A global seasonal disaster risk calender for 2007, which may also be useful for future years, is attached here.
Selected Risk Analysis Data Sources
OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
Natural Disaster historical data can been sourced from the EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. In order for a disaster to be entered into the database at least one of the following criteria has to be fulfilled:
10 or more people reported killed
100 people reported affected
a call for international assistance
declaration of a state of emergency
www.em-dat.net/disasters/Visualisation/emdatselectors.php
International Crisis Group
The International Crisis's Groups CrisisWatch publication can been used as source data to deepen the understanding of vulnerability.
Failed States Index
The Fund for Peace's Failed States Index is based on the following twelve indicators:
1. Mounting Demographic Pressures
2. Massive Movement of Refugees and IDPs
3. Legacy of Vengeance - Seeking Group Grievance
4. Chronic and Sustained Human Flight
5. Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines
6. Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline
7. Criminalization or Delegitimization of the State
8. Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
9. Widespread Violation of Human Rights
10. Security Apparatus as "State within a State"
11. Rise of Factionalized Elites
12. Intervention of Other States or External Actor
www.fundforpeace.org/programs/fsi/fsindex2006.php?column=rank&
World Bank Governance Ranking
This ranking is based on ratings given in the following categories: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability/No Violence, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption
http://info.worldbank.org/governance/kkz2005/mc_indicator.asp
Pandemic Risk
Pandemic risk can been taken based on Maplecroft's Risk Index, or following advice from the Pandemic Influenza Contingency Support Team (PICS).
http://movies.maplecroft.com/pandemic/
WHO - tuberculosis, malaria
Country profiles and statistics on tuberculosis can be sourced from:
http://www.who.int/GlobalAtlas/predefinedReports/TB/index.asp?strSelectedCountry=zaf
Reported malaria cases by year (country profile) can be sourced from the World Malaria Report 2005 annexes.
http://rbm.who.int/wmr2005/html/profiles_africa.htm
UNAIDS
UNAIDS 2006 Global Report provides country profile statistics in Annex 1: Country Profiles.
http://www.unaids.org/en/HIV_data/2006GlobalReport/default.asp
IDMC - Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
Numbers of Internally Displaced People (IDPs) can been sourced from the IDMC, which is supported by the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC).
UNHCR - Statistical Online Population Database
The UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database provides refugee numbers currently residing in the countries under study (based on an online database query)
http://www.unhcr.org/statistics/45c063a82.html
Human Development Index
The human development index (HDI) is a composite index that measures the average achievements in a country in three basic dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, as measured by life expectancy at birth; knowledge, as measured by the adult literacy rate and the combined gross enrolment ratio for primary, secondary and tertiary schools; and a decent standard of living, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in purchasing power parity (PPP) US dollars. The 2006 Human Development Report provides HDI statistics and rankings for each country at:
http://hdr.undp.org/hdr2006/statistics/indicators/10.html
Selected Other Disaster Risk Analysis Tools
This list provides information on some of the publicly available disaster risk analysis tools currently in use either globally or regionally.
World Bank - Natural Disaster Hotspots and Vulnerable Countries
The World Bank has published a report entitled, "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," that presents a global view of disaster risks associated with major natural hazards (drought, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, etc.).
It identifies high-risk geographic regions, or "hotspots", so that development efforts can be better informed and reduce future disaster-related losses. The report was prepared in partnership with Columbia University's Centre for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), and other members of the ProVention Consortium.
The report is available at:
http://publications.worldbank.org/ecommerce/catalog/product?item_id=4302005
The hotspots map is available at:
http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/naturaldisasters/maps/
http://geohotspots.worldbank.org/hotspot/hotspots/disaster.jsp
ISDR - Country Profiles
At present, the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction country profiles include:
General Profile, developed in collaboration with UNEP-DEWA-GRID-Europe, providing national data, world maps with country identification and national maps with population density and main cities;
Official Contacts, Institutional contacts and National Platforms for disaster risk reduction.
Disaster Profiles, with a set of charts and tables on disaster occurrence by hazard type and their impacts: percentage of killed and affected people and economic losses by country in the last century, based on data from OFDA/CRED. Top 10 natural disasters by country are also highlighted.
Hazard Profiles, developed in collaboration with UNEP-DEWA-GRID-Europe, offering the possibility to create on-line maps on natural hazardous events with the following series by hazard: 1) from 1979 to 2000 for earthquakes and tsunami (including the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December 2004); 2) from 1980 to 2004 for volcanic activities, cyclones and floods; 3) from 1980 to 2001 for droughts; and 4) from 1997 to 2003 for wild land fires.
National Reports, giving access to full-text official reports received from countries, and classified by the priorities of the Hyogo Framework. Additional key documents and good practices are being provided for Colombia, Indonesia, Japan Mexico, Morocco and South Africa. This pilot activity will continue to identify good practices by country in cooperation with partner organizations.
http://www.unisdr.org/eng/country-inform/introduction.htm
UNDP/BCPR - Disaster Risk Index Analysis Tool
The DRI enables the calculation of the average risk of death per country in large- and medium-scale disasters associated with earthquakes, tropical cyclones and floods, based on data from 1980 to 2000. It also enables the identification of a number of socio-economic and environmental variables that are correlated with risk to death and which may point to causal processes of disaster risk.
In the DRI, countries are indexed for each hazard type according to their degree of physical exposure, their degree of relative vulnerability and their degree of risk.
http://gridca.grid.unep.ch/undp/
ProVention - Global Risk Identification Programme
The main objective of GRIP is an improved evidence base for disaster risk management to enable the application and prioritisation of effective disaster risk reduction strategies at the national, regional and global scales. The programme will add value to, and improve coordination between, a number of ongoing international initiatives, providing an active network where international organisations and UN agencies, international financial institutions and donors, governments, regional organisations, research institutes, the private sector and NGOs can share knowledge, information, expertise and resources.
The GRIP provides a framework to support and guide two key parallel programmes of activities:
Loss Estimation to provide a more comprehensive and accurate accounting of disaster-related costs and losses (e.g. economic losses; relief costs, GLIDE implementation; disaster databases);
Risk Estimation to improve the availability of information and analysis on disaster risks and risk factors (e.g. hazard characterisation and data; vulnerability assessment; risk indexes).
Resulting data, methods and analyses will be made available through a coordinated knowledge management programme intended to inform the design of disaster risk management and capacity building activities in high-risk countries.
www.proventionconsortium.org/?pageid=32&projectid=3
UN-ISDR/Working Group 3 - Disaster Risk Assessment Portal
UN-HABITAT, UNDP/BCPR, OAS and ADPC are supporting the activities of the UN-ISDR/Working Group 3 by collecting and organising an inventory of risk analysis and vulnerability assessment tools.
The disaster risk assessment tools/websites are categorized into the following 6 categories: a) Multiple stages b) Hazard identification stage c) Vulnerability analysis stage d) Capacity analysis stage e) Risk analysis stage f) Risk evaluation stage
By selecting a category, you will be able to view the latest tools and websites added. You will also be able to view the name of the organization responsible for the tool and where these tools have been applied.
http://www.wg3dm.org/tools.asp
Inter-American Development Bank - Indicators
Indicators of Disaster Risk and Risk Management - this study has developed four indicators measuring the potential impact of natural disasters in 12 countries in Latin America, their vulnerability to catastrophes and their capacity to manage such risks. The new indicators are meant as a tool for policy making, and can also help monitor the evolution of each country's risk management over time. Four major indices are used:
The Disaster Deficit Index estimates the macroeconomic and financial exposure of countries in front of major natural disasters.
The Local Disaster Index evaluates regularity in magnitude and distribution of effects of small-scale natural disasters in terms of number of deaths, people affected and concentration of losses.
The Prevalent Vulnerability Index surveys demographic exposure, socio-economic fragility, and the weakness of institutions and infrastructure.
The Risk Management Index evaluates how well countries identify risks, what they do to reduce them, how they respond to disasters and what budgetary and financial protection they have arranged.
http://www.iadb.org/exr/disaster/index.cfm?language=EN&parid=1